Demography and Social Policy: First Readings in Memory of A.G. Vishnevsky Held at HSE University

© HSE University

The Human Capital Multidisciplinary Research Center, together with the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography and the International Laboratory for Population and Health, organized the first demographic readings in memory of HSE University Professor Anatoly Vishnevsky, the first director of the Institute. The experts in attendance discussed a wide range of topics, including family policy, how to improve the conditions of low-income people, and how to correct market and employment setbacks.

In Memory of Anatoly Vishnevsky

Mikhail Denisenko, Director of the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography at HSE University, opened the reading with a tribute to Anatoly Vishnevsky, calling him an outstanding scholar, a researcher with diverse interests, and a brilliant writer. In his writing, he was very much at home among historians and sociologists. ‘No one could have predicted the sad events of 2021, when outstanding researchers left us,’ said Mikhail Denisenko. He added that the World-Class Research Center (WCRC) plans to resume the publication of the Population and Society Bulletin.

Mikhail Denisenko

Prof. Lilia Ovcharova, HSE Vice Rector, Director of the HSE Institute for Social Policy (ISP) and founder of the WCRC, called Anatoly Vishnevsky a globally renowned scholar and a very civic-minded person.

He always recognized opportunities and said that we should know how to use them. We’ll make sure that his followers and students put his plans into practice

She noted that Anatoly Vishnevsky was an excellent negotiator capable of communicating with officials and politicians.

Sergey Zakharov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography, spoke about the main milestones in the life and research career of the outstanding demographer, his role in the development of national demography, and the creation of a specialized scientific school. He reminded the audience of Anatoly Vishnevsky's major works and his role in establishing international cooperation between demographers in Russia and other countries. ‘His journey was long and difficult. He lived a distinguished life and remains fondly remembered, and he edited and wrote very well until his final days,’ said Sergey Zakharov.

Non-identical Twins

Prof. Ovcharova presented her report on ‘Family Policy in Contemporary Russia.’ She said that Anatoly Vishnevsky considered demographic and family policies to be non-identical twin sisters. Demographers and social economists alike study marriages and family planning. The impact of social policy on people’s quality of life and well-being has become an important research topic, and there are many misconceptions and myths in the field. In the 2000s, many support measures were deemed successful, but Professor Vishnevsky noted that demographic indicators would have improved with any amount of social support. People’s reproductive intentions are difficult to regulate—it is important to understand and assess the possible effects of deferred births, but in the absence of a suitable reserve, no measures to stimulate fertility will be successful.

Prof. Lilia Ovcharova

The HSE vice rector said that Russia had returned to its Soviet-era income level by 2006, after a twofold decline in the 1990s. This recovery reassured the population and had a positive effect on the birth rate. Since 2013, however, there has been income stagnation, and reproductive intentions have declined. Russia has a high and consistent level of income inequality, particularly wealth inequality. The previously high expectations associated with income from real estate and entrepreneurial activities have declined in recent years. Countries provide social support to mitigate high levels of inequality caused by wage and regional disparities.

Lilia Ovcharova spoke about the population’s income structure.

The share of social payments has recently exceeded the Soviet level: in 2019, it was 19.1% (exceeding 1985 figures by 2.7 p.p.) and reached 20.8% in 2020.

However, social payments are unlikely to correct market and employment failures in the long term

Supportive measures for families with children cannot change the issue of low incomes. The problem must be addressed through the standards of the salary system, because currently, about 30% of workers earn less than two minimum monthly wages.

Professor Ovcharova said that the increasing need for elderly care is one of the most important areas of social policy. This need is caused by longer life expectancies and the growing elderly population. Only 1.5 million out of the 4 million people in need of care receive support from social protection agencies. In Prof. Ovcharova’s opinion, both inpatient care and assisted living at home should be developed.

A complicated issue at the intersection of demographic and social policy is the likelihood of increased birth rates in the under-24 age group. This involves studying at university and raising children at the same time. The postponement of having children until later in life is an option that requires investment in reproductive health. ‘I shared the topics we discussed with Anatoly Vishnevsky. His students will help us move forward in exploring these topics,’ summarized Lilia Ovcharova.

Living like the Finnish

Professor Mark Toltz of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem presented a report on ‘The Russian Roots of Demographic Transition Theory,’ in which he discussed the scientific work of the Russian emigrant scholar Alexander Kulischer. Prof. Toltz noted that Anatoly Vishnevsky had translated a number of Kulischer’s articles and reviews from French and published them. Notable examples include his arguments about demographic transition—the initial growth of the population due to an increased decline in mortality and the subsequent sharp decline in the birth rate. According to Alexander Kulischer's assessment, this trend emerged in Western Europe and was not evident in the 1930s.

Vladimir Shkolnikov

Vladimir Shkolnikov, Academic Supervisor of the International Laboratory on Population and Health (ILPH) (HSE University) and Supervisor of the Laboratory at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany), presented a report on ‘Population Losses in Russia Due to the 40-Year Mortality Regression’ prepared jointly with Evgeny Andreev, Head of ILPH. According to the published data, the average life expectancy of men in Soviet Russia in 1964 was 64.9 years. It then fluctuated between 65 in 1986 to 58 in 1994, only managing to exceed the Khrushchev period in 2013. The life expectancy of women in Soviet Russia increased slightly between 1964 and 1990 (72.5 years and 74.3 years, respectively) before falling to 71 and returning to the Khrushchev-era level in 2005. The life expectancy of men in Finland increased to 78 between 1964 and 2013, and to 82 for women by 2005. If the decline in mortality hadn’t halted, there could have been 8.2 million more people in Russia in 1991, 18.2 million more in 2005, and 23.2 million more in 2018. According to the authors of the study, the increase in the number of men would have been significantly greater than that of women (14.6 and 8.6 million in 2018).

A number of other reports were presented on the first day of the readings:

‘The Demographic System and its External Environment in the 21st Century: Understanding Turbulence at Its Junctions’ by Professor Mikhail Klupt of St. Petersburg State University of Economics;

‘All-Russian Population Census 2021’ by Svetlana Nikitina, Head of the Department of Population and Health Statistics at the Federal State Statistics Service, Associate Professor at the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography (HSE University);

‘Epidemiological Transition: Changes in Causes and Age of Death’ by Inna Danilova, Research Fellow of the ILPH, and Vladimir Shkolnikov;

‘Health, Mortality, and Rate of Aging: Some Empirical Findings from Research in Russia’ by Prof. David Leon, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Chief Research Fellow at the ILPH (HSE University);

‘What Do We Know about Socioeconomic Inequality and Mortality in Eastern Europe?’ by Domantas Jasilionis, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany);

‘Mortality as a Function of Survival’ by James Vaupel, University of Southern Denmark;

‘A Theory of Sanitary Transition in the Face of Environmental and Biological Change’ by France Meslé and Jacques Vallin, French National Institute for Demographic Studies;

‘The Challenge of Population Growth’ by John Wilmot, UN Population Division.