Foresight Must Extend its Remit

On the 30th January 2014 the HSE hosted an international seminar on methods and practices to evaluate the effect of foresight research in Russia and the EU. It was organised by ISSEK, the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.

The seminar, which was opened by the director of the International Department of the Russian Ministry of Science and Education, Yevgeny Ugrinovich and the Head of Science and Technology of the EU representation in Russia, Richard Burger, was timed to coincide with the end of the ERA.Net project of the 7th EU framework science and technology development programme (7PП).

The main aim of the project was to bring Russian and European scientific research together. An innovation contest was a feature as were the projects drawing in the main funding organisations from the 7PП EU and associated countries and Russia. Using foresight research methods, a long term programme was devised for cooperation in science and technology and possible scenarios for the development of that cooperation were formulated.

The HSE foresight centre ISSEK, the EC research centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), and the Austrian Centre for Social Innovation (ZSI, Austria) conducted a large scale survey in which they set out coordinates for research cooperation in four key areas - medicine and health, nanotechnology, climate change, social  and human sciences. They drew up technological roadmaps for these key areas. Four seminars were devoted to discussing cooperation priorities - two in Brussels and two at ISSEK in Moscow on nanotechnology and climate change. At this recent seminar Alexander Sokolov, Director of the HSE Foresight Centre and Karel-Herman Hageman, JRC-IPTS Research Fellow and Manfred Spiesberger, ZSI Project Leader talked in detail about how the foresight survey went and about the ensuing evaluation of its future effects.

The determining criteria for evaluating foresight is the extent to which its results are used in devising various policy measures.

The chairman of the Russian government recently confirmed that the results of the huge-scale Russian foresight research were reflected in the long-term prognosis for science and technology development for Russia 2030 - a document prepared with the help of HSE experts. Integrating work with key participants of innovation systems supported by developed strategies plays a significant role in strengthening the effectiveness of foresight research. In the Russian case these processes are being realised as part of the formation of a national system of technological forecasting.

Researchers from Finland, Hungary, Romania, Turkey and Britain spoke at the seminar about the aspects of foresight in planning the all-European programme (particularly as regards the new EU Framework programme on technology and innovation development ‘Horizon 2020’) and also on the level of national systems.

The Finnish researcher spoke about the possibilities and experiences of making foresight an integrated part of the process of government decision making. The Romanian researcher gave a paper which provoked a deal of interest as he explained how his country had developed major foresight research in spite of limited resources. Participants remarked that in most cases foresight research is commissioned by governments and government departments, as in Britain where alongside government science programmes the department of Health has shown major interest. This sharpens debate about what the priorities for foresight research should be. There is a danger of just sticking to the ‘safe areas’ where foresight has already enjoyed success.

Irina Kuklina, the Director of the Analytical centre for International science and technology and education programmes was emphatic that tying foresight research to government programmes puts it at risk of becoming an instrument of government rather than a tool to influence policy making. She insisted, ‘We must look ahead, and beyond the limits of current policy’.

The participants of the seminar all agreed that it is vital to include universities, independent think tanks and the private sector in foresight research. They should also take into account the experience of other countries when organising projects in Russia and consider the results in a global context. The speakers paid particular attention to examining the strategy of monitoring the results of research in Russia and the EU to make sure that they are applied effectively.

The fact that 2014 is the Year of Science in Russia and the EU will strengthen cooperation between Russia and the EU and associated countries in 7PП. The ERA.Net RUS project will be replaced by the ERA.Net RUS Plus initiative which will include funding a row of joint projects in four selected key areas and in supporting innovation.

Oleg Seregin, HSE News Portal